Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 73352.959865 77532.681568 81716.133136 86214.415624 90911.318336 95667.810251 100845.652298
2025-04-06 66169.789873 72526.404674 79072.018877 86306.348351 94068.022175 102135.699608 111145.633505
2025-04-13 60910.440757 68724.056376 76953.247729 86246.330998 96428.817420 107226.227040 119520.939319
2025-04-20 57686.931793 66673.264053 76315.451339 87398.091597 99750.618982 113061.350783 128454.500265
2025-04-27 55084.896764 65023.532234 75862.207075 88511.885392 102819.445940 118449.679348 136763.974963
2025-05-04 52556.972190 63245.616018 75075.640084 89074.053037 105116.837867 122858.096988 143888.994535
2025-05-11 50055.444309 61328.797056 73978.685324 89139.445382 106725.825523 126392.495450 149953.600112
2025-05-18 47946.493957 59738.520568 73140.521118 89393.108076 108456.694601 129993.954882 156045.342936
2025-05-25 45978.730132 58206.786895 72273.443169 89522.424435 109966.461900 133284.038277 161741.698098
2025-06-01 44743.142367 57476.430335 72287.183513 90632.915482 112582.791906 137833.448391 168898.206979
2025-06-08 42952.303580 55992.184095 71328.560017 90517.605494 113692.288425 140578.836768 173918.145648
2025-06-15 42048.090552 55544.275298 71576.307174 91817.404935 116467.392843 145281.558087 181261.382400
2025-06-22 40932.680297 54804.469488 71450.184946 92658.367240 118703.760953 149379.602678 187952.159709
2025-06-29 39527.244731 53649.424693 70769.457842 92782.494674 120044.300377 152395.194528 193356.881729
2025-07-06 38123.718060 52443.241608 69977.196346 92724.867437 121127.542749 155078.828713 198355.618472
2025-07-13 37414.622879 52093.381223 70229.609587 93947.541922 123778.074863 159667.744147 205687.335341
2025-07-20 36732.843996 51748.583367 70463.774488 95128.743237 126368.666229 164188.321350 212958.648930
2025-07-27 35829.196398 51079.540377 70255.402699 95724.786076 128211.160553 167784.885880 219106.721798
2025-08-03 34744.008607 50133.615657 69657.909356 95794.123963 129367.287931 170520.090580 224192.145497
2025-08-10 33800.847449 49344.846572 69235.334090 96063.028005 130758.239945 173539.703850 229636.821600
2025-08-17 32849.910556 48514.407000 68730.334938 96200.110101 131962.461336 176317.005001 234783.260358
2025-08-24 32370.486222 48306.265904 69029.927918 97377.192694 134501.154373 180783.188234 242075.237023
2025-08-31 31394.224124 47386.968105 68359.213775 97254.975493 135341.733333 183091.101625 246646.069215